Clinching at least the seventh seed in the Mountain West isn’t going to cause a celebration at Air Force, but for a team that has finished in last place two years in a row and was picked to finish last again, avoiding the play-in game in the conference tournament is a step.

If TCU loses tonight at Utah or Air Force wins tomorrow at Wyoming, the Falcons clinch a better finish than TCU. Air Force is 4-8 in the conference; TCU is 1-12. With a win over Wyoming, which is 2-10 in the conference, Air Force would have a three-game lead on the eighth-place Cowboys with three to play and would own the tiebreaker based on a season sweep.

Wyoming could still finish ahead of Air Force if it beats the Falcons tomorrow because it would likely win the tiebreaker. The second tiebreaker is whichever team has the “best win” based on the final conference standings and the Cowboys’ have a win over New Mexico and their final three games are at UNLV, against San Diego State and at BYU. But, because of their brutal final three-game stretch, it’s tough to imagine the Cowboys catching Air Force no matter what happens in Laramie on Wednesday.

Assuming Air Force doesn’t have to play in the opening game at the conference tournament between the eighth and ninth seeds, a legitimate goal is finishing ahead of Utah for the sixth seed. Air Force owns the tiebreaker over the Utes, but Utah has one more win (and has played one more conference game). The seventh seed in the conference tournament will play the second seed – which will be either BYU or San Diego State.

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