Air Force vs. Toledo in the Military Bowl seems like one of the toughest bowl games to figure, and a former Colorado coach who will be broadcasting the game can’t pick a winner either.
Dan Hawkins will be calling the game for ESPN. He has watched film of both teams and thinks it’ll be one of the more even matchups in the bowl season. He probably wouldn’t pick a winner, considering he’s calling the game, but he doesn’t know who has the edge.
“I really don’t,” Hawkins said. “If I had to put my money down I’d have a hard time. I can’ make a case for both sides. I think it’s going to be fun.”
Hawkins did make a case for both sides, and here’s some of his pregame analysis:
The case for Air Force
- Hawkins pointed out that Toledo has a good run defense, but that matters little against Air Force’s unusual offense, which features the option. Toledo hasn’t faced an option team in years.
“Just because you can stop the conventional offense doesn’t mean you can stop the option,” Hawkins said.
He used the example of Boise State, which played pretty well on defense all year but gave up a lot of yards to Air Force.
“They moved it on offense now, and Boise is doggone good on defense,” Hawkins said.
Hawkins said Air Force’s versatility on offense should be on full display.
“They’ve got a lot of buttons to push,” Hawkins said.
- Hawkins thought fan support could make a difference. Air Force thinks it can sell more than 12,500 tickets. The Falcons were on the verge of passing 10,000 tickets sold a couple days ago. Meanwhile, the Toledo Blade reported on Tuesday that the Rockets had sold 1,200 tickets of their 5,000-ticket allotment.
“I think emotion is a big deal,” Hawkins said. “Winning on the road is hard in college sports. Emotion is such a big component in all that. Will the crowd be enough to throw Toledo off balance? I don’t know. But it may be enough for Air Force to feel like they’re in friendly confines.”
- Hawkins thought Air Force’s defense is better than it gets credit for. He rattled off the first four games of Falcons’ October schedule – Navy, Notre Dame, San Diego State and Boise State – and said that was the reason they gave up so many points.
“I think their defense was not good because they were up against some good teams,” Hawkins said. “I don’t know if you can say they were bad.”
The case for Toledo
- In watching the Rockets on film, Hawkins simply saw a very good team. He thought they played well on offense and defense. Particularly on offense, he said the Rockets could pass the ball with either quarterback they use, and became a good running team by the end of the year.
“Nobody really stops them,” Hawkins said.
- A big issue for Toledo has been the coaching change since the regular season ended. Tim Beckman left to Illinois, and he was replaced by offensive coordinator Matt Campbell. How the Rockets handle that will be a big deal in the outcome of the game.
“Is that an emotional drain?” Hawkins said. “But Campbell has stayed so it might be the “We’re good without you” mantra.”
- Air Force had problems with ball security all year, while Toledo was good at avoiding turnovers. That’s a huge deal in every football game, and it could be a factor in the Military Bowl. When Hawkins saw Air Force on film, he thought that was one of the team’s biggest issues.
“The bugaboo for Air Force has been turnovers,” Hawkins said. “That will be critical.”
- Toledo should have a better chance to defend Air Force’s option given the extra weeks to prepare. Usually teams have just a few days to learn how to play against the Falcons.
“It think it helps Toledo,” Hawkins said. “Nobody likes to see it with three days of preparation. It’ll definitely help Toledo. How close they can replicate it in practice, who knows, but it is an advantage.”
I’ve attended and watched Air Force games since the early 1970s and, as a general rule, the Falcons have struggled against teams that pass well. Toledo passes well and that concerns me. I’m not confident that Air Force can match Toledo score for score and think the score of the game needs to be in the mid-20s to give Air Force a solid chance to win. I think a high scoring game favors Toledo. I certainly hoppe AFA wins, but I’m concerned about the ability of the defense to limit the Rockets’ scoring.
Our offense will have to avoid turnovers (specifically fumbling on our first possessions) and keep Toledo’s off the field. I have little confidence in our ability to adapt our defense to their offensive scheme, at least until it’s too late. These guys can score; they did it in bunches to an NIU team that hammered Army by 20+ points earlier in the year. I don’t seeing us winning a track meet once it gets started, so we can’t let Toledo get momentum on offense.
Passing teams with good tight ends over the middle seemingly always give AFA problems. Usually the safeties play deep zone, the corners play man, and the LB are sucked up on play action, lacking the speed to drop back of the 10 yard range in the center. AFA needs to get up early BEFORE the Rockets catch up to AFA speed on offense. A slow AFA start may be curtains.
I thought they tore down RFK Stadium years ago. AFA played USNA there in the past.
NOISE Falcons fans!
Dan Hawkins is an even more inept TV commentator than he was a head coach. If he was any good he’d still be coaching somewhere, even if only a coordinator. Chris Petersen was and still is the key to Boise’s success past and present.
Same coach who couldn’t find or play a QB better than his own son until his job was in real jeopardy.
The team that wants to win this game of two fairly evenly matched squads more will win it. End of analysis.
Veena malik…
[...]Dan Hawkins on Military Bowl: “I think it’s going to be fun” – Air Force : Colorado Springs Gazette, CO[...]…