According to The Beat of Sports, a radio station in Orlando, Big East commissioner Mike Aresco mentioned BYU and Air Force as obvious targets for expansion.
And here we go again.
The Air Force-Big East rumors haven’t died since the academy said it wasn’t interested in leaving the Mountain West last December. Nobody at Air Force has told me anything has changed since then. And it’s not like the Big East didn’t put on its best presentation last year. Now, perhaps Aresco will have new ideas and be able to sway Air Force to change its mind (Aresco is the new Big East commissioner, replacing John Marinatto, who made the pitch last year). The Big East might strike gold on a new television deal. One of Lt. Gen. Mike Gould’s concerns about the Big East – though not the only one – was that the money being promised by the Big East wouldn’t be as lucrative as hoped. And Gould did say Air Force could revisit its decision in the future, because he didn’t want to close any doors. But just because the Big East could come calling again doesn’t mean Air Force will jump this time.
The Big East hasn’t gotten stronger since Air Force declined, especially with automatic Bowl Championship Series bids going away and the Big East seemingly losing its status as a power conference in college football. The Big East’s new television contract hasn’t been worked out, so nobody is sure yet how much each school will make. There are still plenty of rumors that Louisville and Connecticut want to leave the Big East, so stability could be a lingering concern. The situation hasn’t changed that much and I don’t see why leaving the Mountain West is any more appealing to Air Force than it was when it said no to the Big East nine months ago. And like I said, from all the sources I’ve talked to, the issue has been pretty dead at Air Force for a while.
The biggest factor might be this: The two men at Air Force most responsible for wanting to stay in the Mountain West, Gould and football coach Troy Calhoun, haven’t left the academy. Gould’s term as superintendent is up in 2013. Calhoun could leave for another job, though he has passed on pursuing other opportunities so far. If one or both leaves, that might open a window for Air Force to look into the Big East again. But until we see a shift in something – the Big East getting a huge TV contract, the Big East becoming stronger as a football conference, Aresco making a more convincing argument to Air Force joining than his predecessor did, either Gould and/or Calhoun leaving and there being a different attitude about moving to the Big East from their replacement(s) at the academy, or some more changes in the Mountain West – I don’t think much has changed since the academy said no the first time.
Gould is talking money when the MWC is going to pay out $800k to each school this year? LOL
This is all about the $$ sports fans. If the Big East starts their own TV network, then we’re in. If not, watch for AFA to hold out for the highest bidder with travel a considerable variable. The WAC is dropping football next year. The MWC too is a conference on life support without legitimate TV money. Like right now.
I find it amazing that this decision is between the coach and the Supt. (i.e. school president). Does AFA even have a legitimate athletic director?!?!?
Not a word from the athletic department. What does that tell you? Gould is the most “football friendly” Supt. AFA has had in 25+ years. When he leaves next year, all bets are off. The next Supt will in all probability be a female graduate. That’s new uncharted ground. Gould wants to leave a legacy on athletics. Bet on it.
Never forget, Army and Navy get $4.5 million each from their game. Thus AFA is always way behind in revenue.
MWC football money is a basic joke. WAC is gone. Unless the Bog East hits big only because of the geography -not the current teams- it is a MWC financial twin. Maybe somewhat better but….
Now if the BigEast can get Air Force, Army and holds Navy, due a few years, that could be a game changer but Army and Navy will never give up or share their annual $4.5 m per year. AFA remains in a tough spot.
Lets see what happen happens!
Bird, I know it’s easy to bash Hans, but in this case – this is ultimately a school president (or, superintendent) decision. It’s like that at every school.
Frank, while I agree somewhat, the AD should be out there as the “lead” on this issue. He would be at any major D- university. Agreed the President/Supt usually signs off on the decision, but the AD should be the subject matter expert here on all things athletics.
AFA is a little different in that the “President” knows the day he takes office he’s only there for 3-4 years max. That is not the case at most universities.
Different paradigm at a service academy.
The AD is only as powerful as President/Super will allow. But to be honest I think Mueh likes being in the background, this is his gig til he retires.
Air Force likes to win, I say stay in the Mountain West. Look at AF Hockey, why leave the AHA to join the new National or even the new WCHA. You can win in the AHA. Why get beat up when you don’t have to. That was the decision Serratore and AF made.
Air Force (including Army and Navy) will always be “wanted”. If the Mountain West did fall apart, Air Force would always have options. You can’t say the same for CSU, Wyoming, Utah State, San Jose State.
But money and national TV exposure is important. The Big East may bring more to the table.
The whole point is to add the teams you want to a conference BEFORE the TV contract is finalized, so that you have a better position to negotiate from. After the contract is signed, adding a team just dilutes the fixed pool of money everyone is splitting. The article suggests that AF can reconsider joining the Big East in perpetuity but that’s not reality. There is an ideal window to make the move, and of it doesn’t happen before the TV deal is inked then the opportunity is both less likely and less profitable.
TJ, you could be right, the door might close for the Falcons joining the Big East when the TV contract is done. It’s possible. Also possible they could lose Louisville and/or UConn after the contract is signed, and they need to stabilize membership. Lot of things are on the table. Still, AFA has no reason to go to the BE now if they didn’t go in December. What’s changed?
The MWC’s TV situation has changed for one.
Couple of things here,
I am quite sure Falcon leadership is mainatining an open dialogue with Big East on all matters including upcoming media contract.
Big East not only hired TV power broker and former CBS and ESPN executive Mike Aresco as their new commissioner they also contracted with big time media consultants Chris Bevilaqua and Alan Gold to advise them through the negotiating process! These are the same guys who worked the Pac 12 deal!!
Add this to the fact no other conference has a media contract expiring for a few more years and there will be many media outlets competing for the rights to fill up programming with valuable and limited sports broadcasts!! (NBC is absolutely salivating at the opportunity to fill up their sports air time!)
There is now wide spread speculation Big East will secure a Media deal greater then ACC!
You can bet Falcon Brass have had chats with Media experts to get an idea of the $$$$ they will reap in the New Big East!
This is the reason AFA will be reconsidering………..
AFA NEVER shut the door on the Big East. They just were not interested in the deal offered 9 months ago. I expect AFA to announce a departure from the MWC before 1/1/13.
I don’t see how the Big East gets a Huge Contract 5x or 10x greater than the MWC. But IF the big bucks are a sure deal, with a firm TV offer in hand, we’ll have to go. But if the Big East contract is only 2x or 3x – I’d stay in the MWC.
Most people thought AFA would be in the Big East by 1/1/12. Know who never really seemed interested in that idea? Mike Gould.
MWC’s TV situation changed a bit, but I don’t think $400,000 is going to make Air Force do a 180.
The Superintendent has a boss, he’s the Chief of Staff of the USAF. If any of you don’t think that the former Chief, General Schwartz, didn’t have input on the decision not to join the BE you’re delusional. Lt. General Gould is going to do what he thinks is best for the USAFA, but he also is going to clear that with his boss. If there is any change in the current stance of staying in the MWC it will be done after a detailed cost benefit evaluation and no doubt intense discussions with the current Chief, General Mark Welsh. Both of those men are going to have to be convinced that there is a benefit beyond dollars in making the move.
Mike
Mike
Great points – the original decision to stay in the MW was cleared through Washington. And one of Gould’s main points of emphasis with me was he didn’t want to be just look like AFA was on a cash grab, because service academies should stand for more than that. If they change their mind now, it’s for one reason, and that’s a cash grab.
or maybe the AF leadership will wake up and realize that not being on TV anymore is going to put a serious dent in their national exposure to potential applicants. if the SA’s are always competing against each other for not just players, but students, online-only broadcasts, augmented by a laughable Altitude distribution for odd games here and there, isn’t going to cut it.
it’s extremely shortsighted/ignorant of you to think it’s only about cash at this point.
They already have Navy and it would make perfect sense for AFA to be a target for the Big East. If AFA leaves the MWC in the next six months it will be because of a better negotiated deal which benefits AFA. The MWC is a sinking ship much like the WAC has become and we don’t want to go there. I suspect with less than a year before his retirement that this is a front burner issue for Gould and he wants to see it done right for fear of how it could be mishandled after he retires.
The last I heard was the $ 9 million dollar range that AFA would be required to pay MWC to leave. Does anyone now if that has changed? if not, how can AFA possibly get approval to forfeit that sports dollar to head to a Conference that has nothing AF needs?
$400,000 ?????
The latest speculation has New Big East Media deal earning in the $13 million plus range! No chump change there!
Certainly trumps a 1 time, 9 mllion dollar buyout, doesn’t it!
Big East will also be creative in assisting Falc’s with buyout clause.
Latest news has both Turner and NFL Network throwing hats into the ring to bid on contract along with NBC, Espn, etc.
Also, Falcons will need national exposure that Navy will be receiving in 2014!
Unfortunately, Big East has made it known BYU is the #1 target for their last opening. I think Academy would be a better, more reliable fit as BYU can be a difficult partner to work with.
Time will tell!
The change in MW TV money – went from $1.4m to $1m per school. $400,000.
Frank…do you have any insight on what/when the MWC is going to comment on ongoing or future TV contracts? We understand that this fall was a hit/miss for televised games with the late decision to close theMtn. The next deal is the one we anxiously want the words on. Is it tied (timing wise) at all to the negotiations with the Big East ‘before’ TV networks want to deal with the MWC? Time to get that reporter hat on and find the answers.
As always…thanks for your hard work and unbiased reporting on our Falcons.
Three years left on this TV deal, they’re hoping to renegotiate it however, and some of that negotiation depends on if the member schools decide to let the conference sell the third-tier games (so they can bundle everything and in theory command more money from the TV network) or sell those games off individually and separately.
” Its current deal pays the Mountain West $8 million per season after losing roughly $4 million per year with the shuttering of The Mtn. — the first network dedicated to a single athletic conference.”
Read more here: http://www.idahostatesman.com/2012/07/26/2202626/mountain-west-is-going-back-to.html#storylink=cpy
Frank, there are 10 teams this year = $800k.
If you want to average the $8M a year for the next 3 years across the 26 teams that will play, it’s $923k per year – a 34% (!!!!) drop in revenue from the prior payouts w/ the Mtn
By comparison, if AF charged $20 a head for tickets, they would make $933k for one sold out home game.
I can’t remember the specifics of why it’s $1.4 million to $1 million – has to do with exiting and joining teams and who gets paid, etc., such as Boise State forfeiting its share – but those are the figures. I’m not the only one to cite them.
http://www.idahopress.com/sports/boise/bsf-football/fox-big-east-is-the-right-call-for-bronco/article_afe68ee8-d6ec-11e1-bc92-0019bb2963f4.html?mode=jqm
http://www.rawlinstimes.com/sports/uw/article_b4dd2e0a-d6d5-11e1-9d68-001a4bcf887a.html
http://blogs.rgj.com/packblog/2012/07/25/commissioner-craig-thompson-says-mwc-has-bright-future-not-looking-to-expand/
We wouldn’t get all the Big East money because we would only be football members like Boise State and San Diego State. A lot of Big East TV future dollars will be associated with basketball (UConn, Georgetown, St Johns, Marquette, Cincinnati, Louisville, Seton Hall, etc.)
frank, are you saying that the MWC got to renegotiate their TV deal with the growth from 8 to 10 teams? I haven’t read that anywhere else. the non-Mtn TV payouts were $8M a year per the old TV contract, which is why the 8 schools used to get $1M a piece from it. but adding two more teams this year is going to make that $8M be more spread out, isn’t it?
regardless, we’re bickering over what, $77k a year? meanwhile just this month there was word NBC may be offering $10M a year for football-only schools (basketball would be a $4M payout, with dual-sport schools getting $14M)
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/college/big-east-football-heading-direction-conference-a-commissioner-backbone-games-national-tv-article-1.1127668?pgno=1
so bluefan is correct. assuming a $1M TV payout for this year Air Force football would only make 900% more a year from the projected Big East TV deal, not 1300% more
but let’s keep shrinking the size of our stadium and playing worse and worse teams. hopefully schools like Michigan and Oklahoma will continue throwing us bones so we have the chance to get on national TV for more than just the Navy game every year
Big East basketball will garner 3-4 Mill so figure football at approx. 10 million.
I’m thinkin New Big East!!!
The stadium is typically too big, except when we play Navy, Army, Notre Dame. Thank God we make all the cadets attend. Sad more people from Colorado Springs and surrounding area do not attend. But in today’s world you can go to the Air Force – UNLV game live or you can stay home and watch on TV Oklahoma vs Texas, Nebraska vs Wisconsin, USC vs Oregon, Alabama vs. South Carolina, Kansas State vs Oklahoma State, BYU vs. Notre Dame, LSU vs. Texas A&M, etc. etc. etc.